about a trading in a 5 minutes=)

I would like to share with my thoughts about a trading in a 5 minutes after opening. I have added something from my common knowledge, plus my own that gained from my experience of working with this instrument. I have gathered three patterns, which I always use for trading. But, first of all there is a preview analysis for all variants.
Let`s see:
All prices of a present day from 00:00 - 09:29 we are marking a level with the maximum size.
All prices of a present day from 09:00-09:35 we are looking where was the maximum Bid and the Ask for a period. Then we are memorizing where and how many of bid and where and how many of ask, probably one of them is coinciding with the maximum size per time-period. In accordance with situation on 09:35 we have two or three price levels.

The first pattern.
It`s very important that in the field where the gap was happened on the opening (09:30-5) the opposed size would not be taken out.
In our case we shouldn`t have a lot of BID in the gap`s point and ALSO around the level where a size are located for 00:00-09:29. We could have Ask`s odds and it would be nice.

The second pattern.

It is where the opposed size was taken out(in our case the ASK)we have to open against market`s primary jump, in the direction of the size.

The third pattern.
Besides, partly it was finished today. Around the level where a size is located for 00:00-09:29 on the opening (09:30-35) a large size was taken out with a big odds and the price is down. At this moment you are just thinking, are these Bids and Asks working when we have a such opposition?! Then a market after the jump will go down and begins to go up to the large size slowly. It`s hard to calculate this turn`s point by clusters, looks like nothing was opposed to the movement, but a market turned around. I`m looking on other methods of analysis to catch this point.

This whole picture has a look in aggregate with other sized levels and combo. The stops are setting individually, as the profit`s points. I was making a test on a history, what can I say there were different situations, but most of them were positive.

Today, in the period of 30-35 there were lots of ASK on 1403 and then a large size on 1398 fifty-fifty for ASK and for BID. The price is gone down, but then came back to 1398. Here was a good point for selling, because in a short term perspective 1403 is blurred by the level 1398, and in direction to it you need to trade later. It were my thoughts. I didn`t sell it in time. When a market become at 1380-1385, I thought that the time to buy on the movement to 1403 has come. Came out at 1393, as 1395 didn`t move to the top.
Good luck!

The aim is Gained!

The aim is gained! The level 1364 is worked out just perfect, If to speak about this fact. But, what we can say about market`s movement from Monday? For those who starts trading, from the beginning of CBOT it had been seen that in the direction to this aim a lot of electronics were sold. On the opening price was adding a lot by gap. This forced me to look for a better opportunity attentively. The trend lines were looking perfect if to take a look on it in general. And I have a suspicion that in this place the diagram looks like a Eliot`s construction. Today I have made one good deal (once again with a help of oil`s diagram), but then I've lost a trading from 1412. It`s a pity that during the last hour I was not able to be at the chart. Especially I want to mark that the price fallen down to 1364 level on the opening. I was sorry about that there wasn't a buy limit. I`ve remembered the character from the book " The philosophy of a forex market " about metaphors in market`s notions, about what/whom it looks like.
One of the character - Living Being (creature). This image reminds me the one third of Soy`s market. In the theory there are also images of the gambling, cars (robots, advisers) and the war, market, sport, etc. I suppose that a "pit" or a "trench" begin to move from one place to another since the moment of opening - they have to find their way, to play on their ground, up or down just to have the occasion do not stop, because the electricians have played their role. So, in such a way I imagine it. And even when you know the sizes you are not holding the Grail in your hand, only sometimes. I want to know plans of those people who rule the market. And I hope I will succeed in it. Now we can pips successfully.

Keep on watching...

It`s a pity that while opening the soy gin is moved a little bit down,
and couldn`t restore up to 1450. Technically, we hadn`t place from where
to sell it, if talk about important levels, which are known earlier.
There was a good size for pipsing on the fist five minute cluster. But I
didnt like the thought that I had to sell it here, it`s somewhere in the
middle of the levels. Our main aim - to be calm and don`t cheat on the
opening of the position! There was no need to use a chance to go/get for
a hothead like at the forex, and I`m tired of all these things. At the
same time a such kind of situations proceed accumulating and wait for a
making new decisions. The one thing , which I have done today is short
pipsing:1425 - 1420. The correction couldn`t go above than 25, was a
size on the cluster and I `ve sold it. I also could do it , in the
beginning. All what I want that the number technically well-founded
deals grow up. We can see on the cluster the size, which I `ve decided.
5 minutes after exchange`s opening...

For those who are looking the ways of creating the own strategies on the
forex market, I`m offering to get to know with the article by Moving to
the Top (Segei).By the way, for those who are interested of Fibonacci ,
I recommend you the books written by Robert Fisher. These books are very
innovative, simple, and useful. He has his own software, and very cool one.

The Trader's session

On the Today's session I had to cover my losses, because I've lost money.
After the market`s opening everything suddenly gone down for a 5 minutes, essentially it was the range for a whole day. All deals which I have opened could be closed with a plus, but I had doubts about my posses, because I didn`t have a good reason for that. The first posse brought me a minus: I've sold 1398 and came out on 1403. After that I had two deals with a small plus but they didn`t cover my minus, once again because of my early exiting, it happened because the market was not giving me a chance to be in a plus for a long time and I began to worry. Soy is not a fast instrument, but it`s intro day trends are short and bad, and I don`t believe them.
On the one hand I`m glad that minus is so small, and that I wasn`t in panic, on the other hand it`s bad that I didn`t hold posses.

Trading sizes: Today none of us guessed the tendency, victories were
only on the pipsing - buying/selling from the places where were some sizes
on clusters. Anyway I was full of doubts. We have to praise the oil,
because it`s quotations helped me to reasonably appreciate the situation
with unsuccessful attempts. I will add to my analysis something from instruments of technical
analysis - movings and other instruments from the strategy of famous
trader FxIgor on forum. I think it`s not reasonable to take into
consideration only sizes, though their advantage is clear, but I
will mix it up for a 20%. Let`s see what will happen.

The review of Soy`s Complex market condition on 7/22/2008

In November the price of the soy was 15 1/2 suddenly higher (overnight).
Malaysia's palm-oil was suddenly a little bit lower(overnight). The raw
oil was mixed up in the tight range (overnight), during the time when a
dollar was lower.

Yesterday a soy was broken again and finished at day decreases. Traders are crediting a break to the weekend with good weather in USA with a large number of the same forecasts for a week or longer. The big night markets were trading,
holding decreases in the November`s contract and finishing about the maximum. The food and oil(palm-oil) also were higher. Weekly message about conditions (positions) of the harvest showed a small perfection of the soy`s harvest as it was expected. The soy was estimated at 61%, good/perfect result in comparison with
59% of a last week and 61% of the last year. A 10 years` average number during
this time of the year is 60%. The blossoming is running up to 45% in
comprehensive with 26% of last week, 70% in last year and a 5 year`s
average number is 65%. Another bad Malaysia's session have seen an early
end of the meeting. Indonesia made it`s export
taxes lower from 20% in July to 15% in August, and those taxes had a
weight on the market and it`s making the efficient price of Indonesia's
palm-oil lower on the world market. The palm tree - already has, with
historical discount to the soy, which probably will be moved(changed) by
oil`s and a new wants to eatable oil.
The wave in options of oil-bearing crops during this year from Canada,
India and other countries helped to weak the problems(deals) of
thickness.

The fixed region in Canada - about 15.812 millions of acres, is higher
at 7.4% from a last year record. To suppressing the inflation, China
bought about 400 000 tons of soy oil and about 1 million tons of soy for it`s
reserve, and these news helped oil during the last few days in China.


The cool front moved out to the South in the north Middle West for the last
24 hours, and this event in it`s turn forced the last line(orchestra) of
rains to go to more far South. Those rains were moving across the north
state of Nebraska to the central and south Iowa before taking more south
route to the east, crossing the central and south Illinois, south
Indiana and most of Ohio state`s territory.
Once again we are avoiding widen period of a very hot weather in main
regions of increasing. Because the cool front is still pushing the
South, which as expecting will bring a good weather to most parts of
northern and to the soy`s zone C3, allowing to dry up E3 and other very
moist regions. It will be raining today in the widen line (orchestra)
east - west across south part of the soy`s zone. A dry conditions should
be lasted during the weekend in the most of main growth`s regions,
except of scattered rains in the south central zone on Friday and on
Sunday in a Corn zone.

The delta is still dry with some rains, which are waiting on Tuesday in
the northern Delta and Mississippi. The same is holding during Saturday
by the rain, probably pushing faraway south in Sunday. There are no
suggestions for soy in the future.

The Middle part of review about market conditions of the Soy`s Complex
session on 7/22/2008

In November the soy has opened 2 3/4 cents is lower, in day at 1400 1/4
and steed the early range at 1382 1/4 up to 1412. The more lower opened
escorted earlier calls to higher opened according to the night action. The
traders are crediting sudden weakness to acute decreasing of raw oil
till the opening parallel with gathering in dollar. Soy and food, the
returning from entering decreasing in the early trading, but stepped
back, that to decrease the levels, which are a part of middle session.
The oil was under the pressure everywhere while early session and had been
loosing to the food, which was entering in the middle of a day. The
traders are saying, that China has bought 1 million tons of soy and 400
000 tons of oil before Olympic games. This information was not
confirmed, but a lot of traders suppose that - it is for reserve, to
fight with inflation. In spite of weekend`s forecast the weather is good
in the Middle West of USA.


The Delta - the second story with a drought and long forecasts of the
range, which are calling to high strained temperature in the beginning
of August in Delta. Some rains are expected in northern Delta and in
Mississippi later on this week. The fields of oil-bearing culture in
India are still dry. . .
Some private forecasters at this moment are rising the projection oil`s
import as a result of various shortening of oil-bearing production.
Present markets, as it is said, are stable for a long term selling of
soy among the farmers.

The soy: my forecast for a week 21-25.07

The Aims:
UP: If the soy will go up , than it`s aim - the contract level at 1561.
Here also is 9th July`s core of euro session - 1558- 1559. The following
oppositions are: 1490, 1500, 1535.

Down: If the soy proceeds to go down , than it`s aim easily can be 1364:
MAX level 020608 and the core of the same day - 1356 - 1352. Possible
support on the way
1422: MAX050608. All other days of the July`s week are including in the
levels , which are described above. The supports on the way:
1455 - we are already here, 1422
FLAT: The Monday will create two cores on Monday 2107, which will be
processing whole week.
Monday`s session:

1450-1461 will be not bad levels , because here we have 9th July`s core
( we came on/to it in Mon) + rate levels 5-6-9 of June.
The flat range for a Monday is 1490-1452-1421.

In any case, the main aim , which we can`r loose from our sight is: any
Monday`s core. Our own or what belongs to others - the question is.

The session 1707

Today I was only buying. On the opening the oil showed it`s growth and
got stiff with cold there, and the soy nevertheless was going down. In a
view of standing oil , the first buying of soil at 1527 didn`t make me
ha[[y, and soon the price gone down to 1523.. But than appeared the
possibility to go out by the entering price. The loss was only in a size
of the fee. In general, today the soy was sharp and trend. The range was
high - almost the maximum. It is said that there was a possibility of
selling from 1536, but the volfix failed as usual and got up exactly for
the five minutes before the cluster with a necessary size has
appeared... Than I have bought by 1500 and the price gone down to 1493,
but it was clear that it was the last breath of it, and guys from the
chat encouraged - by the purchases from 1490 ( there are smart as
compared with me, I wish I know where to find) - I also have bought from
1495, and as a result the out on the two posses at 1502. When the price
grown up from 1490 to 1503 there were clapping and a big smile in the
chat, like in the plane which is going to come in the land. I think it
is the most exciting moment!! And I thought: I`m not the one paper ship
in the ocean.

The trading session of July 16

I will describe the train of my thoughts. The price went down on the first 15 but than moved up. The solid sizes were under 1500. Generally, this first candle was suspected by me as the turning, because than the market started to move to the top. It is clear that, it doesn`t mean that the soy should turning globally, but there is a possibility that after some time it will happened. Starting from 02:45 I wanted to come with the limit down from 1520-27 or from 1510 through the market after 1510 has appeared for a
moment on the cluster ( 1510 it was if the worst comes to the worst). Up to 1520-27 (level) the quotation didn`t get up and there was entering in the market by 1509. I had the aim 1500. I was surprised when the deal wasn`t closed on a take profit, besides the level was gained ( WHC makes me sick of a such kind of tricks) I was forced to close by myself at 1499. Here we can find the answer: Why did I get in the sell? In general, the indications of a some number lots on the cluster is a good thing, but risky. That`s true, and I agree. As a matter of fact, I also test the comparative analysis of the oil and a soy. Geometrically I have situated them together on my indicator. When the prices of both come across, than often we have a stop of the movement. At this moment it is on the stage of a testing, but I like this effect more than a combo. So, there are oil on the market, as we see it on the one of pictures( oil - is a red
line) gone down, there was very strong bear`s sentimentalism. That`s why I sold it. Often the soy walks arm-in-arm with oil ( according to May`s analysis) and during the bumping we have the support of the resistance. When the oil`s quotation go down, I`m looking at the soy only as for sale. The second entering was made at the sell limit, when the price moved up to the level 1527 - the sell limit snapped into action. There was a rate level, besides the oil was doing nothing but standing in the place, it means that the soy was like led by something - and has jumped up to 1527 and the lead stretched. I came to 1522. And than I had a good opportunity to come in by the sell limit at 1536-1535. It is the rate level of the contract(in the leaders five), and there was a core from July`s 16. It would be good to sell it from the border!! But I have missed that chance. I've thought about it - fortunately I had a time.. But.. The movement stopped at the core of Monday`s 14 July. I have already been out of the market, but it was interesting to look at it after that. The result: today the market was technical - speculative on 90% minimum. Almost everything was processed, what could be processed.

The soy: trading session 14/07

After the opening of the exchange the price was holding at the level of
a contract - 1561. I don`t know why, but I didn`t want to move from the level up or down. The combo of the week - 0707 was moved to the top. The Friday`s combo (daily) was breathing with resistance to the price`s nose, but than was a window when it was seemed that a purchase from 1570 is a good one. Besides, the cores 0707 were, also looking good. To buy it from 1570 with the aim of 1600! But, it happened in a such way that I have bought it almost at the peak! Till 04:30 the price ddidn't give a monotonous trend to the top and was just trying slightly to renew LE. Trading to the top was like a situations, which I call the jitters. It means that it`s time to leave.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

I start to notice, that I pay my attention to the market`s conduct
while it`s opening, the same 15 minutes, I use not only for looking at the
cluster`s sizes, but to find the turning of the market visual.
The first LE can tell a lot. If I will take care about the details too much, in the beginning of the market, I become sluggish. In general, psychologically we can see the picture of it`s acting just like this:
1. With the opening of the market starts the phase of aggressive and unpredictable moving.
2. The influence of this mess and immediate analysis of some clusters savings is making a stop in a general mark of what have happened.
It's all about my lack of experience.
3. And the entering from the level is loosing. It`s hard to enter with profit to the market with latecomer order limit.
4. After all, everything is looks very simple.
So, my today`s buying trend is 1570-1572.5

On the weekend I was watching something about the soy. I've noticed the difference between
a real exchanges rates and their software which I use. But nothing critical. There were just putted 1000 of lots in a one place, but the
software showed me 700

The stats:

The average daily range for the last few months was about 300 points for
a day.
There were 150-600 of points. But it`s a stupid thing to put on
the average result without taking into consideration register of the
levels.
What's here 600? For example the diapason 1500-1600. It`s a 1000 points. As for me, it`s really strange to see so much number of pips
here after the forex, I see things my way. I divide it on ten.

It`s very important to understand the moving daily range of the
instrument, it`s as important as knowing the alphabet. No matter what
you are trading with.

The Friday on the soy

I would like to say at once: it was need to take it more...But... In order....
At the beginning we wanted to gain the 1610 by the long with the faded start, but it was
spoiled by the gap, which has brought the quotation to this price(level). I have already
forgot about technical enter, only cores were left. By the way, the Volfix doesn`t publish
them on the soy, but as for me they could do it for the variety of the instruments. So,
using my old methods I have entered to the short at 1592.5.

The auctions of the soy from 8 July.

The beginning of the auctions was like yesterday, the market went down, hitted the second
and a little bit of the 3 rate level for a whole contract by the size. This is 1500 and
1490. Finally.

The SOY: monday`s auctions.

I have to say that the soy was very active today, I even couldn`t find what`s going on.
There was an oportunity to earn having the most courageous offers. As I only starting look
at this market, I understand that I gotta do something except the view of the first 15
minutes with a siple tactics. Today, it was important what the market was doing on the
e-auctions, and learn attentivelly it`s offer from the beginning of the session due to
the combo. It was given 1072 by the ask on the first note at 18:30 MSK. Then, the price
like an arrow is going down. It already makes no sense to talk about technical enter. The
level of the contract was moved from 1500 to 1561. The information is constant.

Some Fun.....

BAd_MAd was writing that he is interested in shares of the CiSCo company. I have decided
to check what was happening on it for a last few days. I was only checking the sizes of
the time and the chicago`s size of the core. I just have found only one good by the size
of the core. Probably, it were a couple of a bad days. But, more I like the cores.
Completely good to make an orders. Probably,I would do it. By the way there were lots of
liquidity.The sizes of the cores here are bigger than the sizes of the euro. The race of
the euro looks big, because it has 4 numbers after the comma. So micro steps in comparison
with CSCO.

Here is the example TIME AND SALES. От cisco and euro

CISCO

23.13 20:56:40 200
23.13 20:56:40 100
23.13 20:56:40 100
23.13 20:56:40 400
23.13 20:56:40 2400

Euro
146500 21:27:37 5
146500 21:27:37 4
146500 21:27:37 8
146500 21:27:37 1
146500 21:27:37 1
146500 21:27:37 8
146500 21:27:37 51
146500 21:27:37 24
146510 21:27:37 4

What do we have till the Monday on the SOY(ZS X?

According to the standard technical analysys we are growing up.
We have presented the next information on our picures.
1.Excel. I have rewrote the data from Volfix.
2. The levels Max Volume (are takken from Volfix)
3. The diagrams are put one over another - combo. (counted in MT4)
4. The cores. I don`t know how it`s working here. It was also counted in MT4

CBOT Trading Soybean market pit trading

Since the beginning of June, I`m looking for a one more features - the SOY. The
November`s feature - is ZS X8. The most attracting part - is the beginning of the auction
from 18:30 by MSK, althrough the e-trends also should have a place to be. The most
attractive thing that you don`t need to stop working on your job and trading in the same
time. Because the oil and euro are working hard on their enters till 19:30. As for me, I
got only one way to look what have been.

Soybeans aren't sexy... except to a commodities trader. Yet this grain is among the lowest risk, most potentially profitable trades around.