The Trader's session
On the Today's session I had to cover my losses, because I've lost money.
After the market`s opening everything suddenly gone down for a 5 minutes, essentially it was the range for a whole day. All deals which I have opened could be closed with a plus, but I had doubts about my posses, because I didn`t have a good reason for that. The first posse brought me a minus: I've sold 1398 and came out on 1403. After that I had two deals with a small plus but they didn`t cover my minus, once again because of my early exiting, it happened because the market was not giving me a chance to be in a plus for a long time and I began to worry. Soy is not a fast instrument, but it`s intro day trends are short and bad, and I don`t believe them.
On the one hand I`m glad that minus is so small, and that I wasn`t in panic, on the other hand it`s bad that I didn`t hold posses.
Trading sizes: Today none of us guessed the tendency, victories were
only on the pipsing - buying/selling from the places where were some sizes
on clusters. Anyway I was full of doubts. We have to praise the oil,
because it`s quotations helped me to reasonably appreciate the situation
with unsuccessful attempts. I will add to my analysis something from instruments of technical
analysis - movings and other instruments from the strategy of famous
trader FxIgor on forum. I think it`s not reasonable to take into
consideration only sizes, though their advantage is clear, but I
will mix it up for a 20%. Let`s see what will happen.
The review of Soy`s Complex market condition on 7/22/2008
In November the price of the soy was 15 1/2 suddenly higher (overnight).
Malaysia's palm-oil was suddenly a little bit lower(overnight). The raw
oil was mixed up in the tight range (overnight), during the time when a
dollar was lower.
Yesterday a soy was broken again and finished at day decreases. Traders are crediting a break to the weekend with good weather in USA with a large number of the same forecasts for a week or longer. The big night markets were trading,
holding decreases in the November`s contract and finishing about the maximum. The food and oil(palm-oil) also were higher. Weekly message about conditions (positions) of the harvest showed a small perfection of the soy`s harvest as it was expected. The soy was estimated at 61%, good/perfect result in comparison with
59% of a last week and 61% of the last year. A 10 years` average number during
this time of the year is 60%. The blossoming is running up to 45% in
comprehensive with 26% of last week, 70% in last year and a 5 year`s
average number is 65%. Another bad Malaysia's session have seen an early
end of the meeting. Indonesia made it`s export
taxes lower from 20% in July to 15% in August, and those taxes had a
weight on the market and it`s making the efficient price of Indonesia's
palm-oil lower on the world market. The palm tree - already has, with
historical discount to the soy, which probably will be moved(changed) by
oil`s and a new wants to eatable oil.
The wave in options of oil-bearing crops during this year from Canada,
India and other countries helped to weak the problems(deals) of
thickness.
The fixed region in Canada - about 15.812 millions of acres, is higher
at 7.4% from a last year record. To suppressing the inflation, China
bought about 400 000 tons of soy oil and about 1 million tons of soy for it`s
reserve, and these news helped oil during the last few days in China.
The cool front moved out to the South in the north Middle West for the last
24 hours, and this event in it`s turn forced the last line(orchestra) of
rains to go to more far South. Those rains were moving across the north
state of Nebraska to the central and south Iowa before taking more south
route to the east, crossing the central and south Illinois, south
Indiana and most of Ohio state`s territory.
Once again we are avoiding widen period of a very hot weather in main
regions of increasing. Because the cool front is still pushing the
South, which as expecting will bring a good weather to most parts of
northern and to the soy`s zone C3, allowing to dry up E3 and other very
moist regions. It will be raining today in the widen line (orchestra)
east - west across south part of the soy`s zone. A dry conditions should
be lasted during the weekend in the most of main growth`s regions,
except of scattered rains in the south central zone on Friday and on
Sunday in a Corn zone.
The delta is still dry with some rains, which are waiting on Tuesday in
the northern Delta and Mississippi. The same is holding during Saturday
by the rain, probably pushing faraway south in Sunday. There are no
suggestions for soy in the future.
The Middle part of review about market conditions of the Soy`s Complex
session on 7/22/2008
In November the soy has opened 2 3/4 cents is lower, in day at 1400 1/4
and steed the early range at 1382 1/4 up to 1412. The more lower opened
escorted earlier calls to higher opened according to the night action. The
traders are crediting sudden weakness to acute decreasing of raw oil
till the opening parallel with gathering in dollar. Soy and food, the
returning from entering decreasing in the early trading, but stepped
back, that to decrease the levels, which are a part of middle session.
The oil was under the pressure everywhere while early session and had been
loosing to the food, which was entering in the middle of a day. The
traders are saying, that China has bought 1 million tons of soy and 400
000 tons of oil before Olympic games. This information was not
confirmed, but a lot of traders suppose that - it is for reserve, to
fight with inflation. In spite of weekend`s forecast the weather is good
in the Middle West of USA.
The Delta - the second story with a drought and long forecasts of the
range, which are calling to high strained temperature in the beginning
of August in Delta. Some rains are expected in northern Delta and in
Mississippi later on this week. The fields of oil-bearing culture in
India are still dry. . .
Some private forecasters at this moment are rising the projection oil`s
import as a result of various shortening of oil-bearing production.
Present markets, as it is said, are stable for a long term selling of
soy among the farmers.
After the market`s opening everything suddenly gone down for a 5 minutes, essentially it was the range for a whole day. All deals which I have opened could be closed with a plus, but I had doubts about my posses, because I didn`t have a good reason for that. The first posse brought me a minus: I've sold 1398 and came out on 1403. After that I had two deals with a small plus but they didn`t cover my minus, once again because of my early exiting, it happened because the market was not giving me a chance to be in a plus for a long time and I began to worry. Soy is not a fast instrument, but it`s intro day trends are short and bad, and I don`t believe them.
On the one hand I`m glad that minus is so small, and that I wasn`t in panic, on the other hand it`s bad that I didn`t hold posses.
Trading sizes: Today none of us guessed the tendency, victories were
only on the pipsing - buying/selling from the places where were some sizes
on clusters. Anyway I was full of doubts. We have to praise the oil,
because it`s quotations helped me to reasonably appreciate the situation
with unsuccessful attempts. I will add to my analysis something from instruments of technical
analysis - movings and other instruments from the strategy of famous
trader FxIgor on forum. I think it`s not reasonable to take into
consideration only sizes, though their advantage is clear, but I
will mix it up for a 20%. Let`s see what will happen.
The review of Soy`s Complex market condition on 7/22/2008
In November the price of the soy was 15 1/2 suddenly higher (overnight).
Malaysia's palm-oil was suddenly a little bit lower(overnight). The raw
oil was mixed up in the tight range (overnight), during the time when a
dollar was lower.
Yesterday a soy was broken again and finished at day decreases. Traders are crediting a break to the weekend with good weather in USA with a large number of the same forecasts for a week or longer. The big night markets were trading,
holding decreases in the November`s contract and finishing about the maximum. The food and oil(palm-oil) also were higher. Weekly message about conditions (positions) of the harvest showed a small perfection of the soy`s harvest as it was expected. The soy was estimated at 61%, good/perfect result in comparison with
59% of a last week and 61% of the last year. A 10 years` average number during
this time of the year is 60%. The blossoming is running up to 45% in
comprehensive with 26% of last week, 70% in last year and a 5 year`s
average number is 65%. Another bad Malaysia's session have seen an early
end of the meeting. Indonesia made it`s export
taxes lower from 20% in July to 15% in August, and those taxes had a
weight on the market and it`s making the efficient price of Indonesia's
palm-oil lower on the world market. The palm tree - already has, with
historical discount to the soy, which probably will be moved(changed) by
oil`s and a new wants to eatable oil.
The wave in options of oil-bearing crops during this year from Canada,
India and other countries helped to weak the problems(deals) of
thickness.
The fixed region in Canada - about 15.812 millions of acres, is higher
at 7.4% from a last year record. To suppressing the inflation, China
bought about 400 000 tons of soy oil and about 1 million tons of soy for it`s
reserve, and these news helped oil during the last few days in China.
The cool front moved out to the South in the north Middle West for the last
24 hours, and this event in it`s turn forced the last line(orchestra) of
rains to go to more far South. Those rains were moving across the north
state of Nebraska to the central and south Iowa before taking more south
route to the east, crossing the central and south Illinois, south
Indiana and most of Ohio state`s territory.
Once again we are avoiding widen period of a very hot weather in main
regions of increasing. Because the cool front is still pushing the
South, which as expecting will bring a good weather to most parts of
northern and to the soy`s zone C3, allowing to dry up E3 and other very
moist regions. It will be raining today in the widen line (orchestra)
east - west across south part of the soy`s zone. A dry conditions should
be lasted during the weekend in the most of main growth`s regions,
except of scattered rains in the south central zone on Friday and on
Sunday in a Corn zone.
The delta is still dry with some rains, which are waiting on Tuesday in
the northern Delta and Mississippi. The same is holding during Saturday
by the rain, probably pushing faraway south in Sunday. There are no
suggestions for soy in the future.
The Middle part of review about market conditions of the Soy`s Complex
session on 7/22/2008
In November the soy has opened 2 3/4 cents is lower, in day at 1400 1/4
and steed the early range at 1382 1/4 up to 1412. The more lower opened
escorted earlier calls to higher opened according to the night action. The
traders are crediting sudden weakness to acute decreasing of raw oil
till the opening parallel with gathering in dollar. Soy and food, the
returning from entering decreasing in the early trading, but stepped
back, that to decrease the levels, which are a part of middle session.
The oil was under the pressure everywhere while early session and had been
loosing to the food, which was entering in the middle of a day. The
traders are saying, that China has bought 1 million tons of soy and 400
000 tons of oil before Olympic games. This information was not
confirmed, but a lot of traders suppose that - it is for reserve, to
fight with inflation. In spite of weekend`s forecast the weather is good
in the Middle West of USA.
The Delta - the second story with a drought and long forecasts of the
range, which are calling to high strained temperature in the beginning
of August in Delta. Some rains are expected in northern Delta and in
Mississippi later on this week. The fields of oil-bearing culture in
India are still dry. . .
Some private forecasters at this moment are rising the projection oil`s
import as a result of various shortening of oil-bearing production.
Present markets, as it is said, are stable for a long term selling of
soy among the farmers.
posted by smart at
1:20 AM
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