Saturday, August 16, 2008

Everything starts from the "Beginner" level!

Like other traders, I am worry about the topical question - how to earn only
with trading. To leave from my "familiar spot" of working, stop pumping
the corporate
the energy - parasite and smiling to the carrots, who are hanging under
you next ghost of the corporate leader. And not just smiling, but also
trying to catch it by the teeth and while the flying for it politically
correctly bite a competitor. But everything is started from the
"beginner`s" level.

The topics, by which we would like write next things:

1. The describable "Beginner" level by Billy Williams. According to my
experience.
2. What is the difference of moving tradings between the soy and
currency pairs.
3. The analysis of sizes and indicator`s analysis.
4. The soy: an illustration of the strategy.

The "Beginner" level.
Quotes:
" The aim of the beginner is to learn how to trade on the market without
loosing money, while you are gaining the experience"
The psychological pressure: The enthusiasm, depression. " The trading is
more sly thing that I have supposed". " At this moment lots of freshmen
traders give up trading"

I want to quote the paragraph from the blogg of trader white:

" As the matter of principal, you can be a super EWA* analyst, but when
you step up in the market you will loose everything, because the
analysis is a one thing, and trading according to your analysis - is
another thing, now I will explain why: Let`s imagine that you are just
an analyst - well the market went not so good as you have supposed, well
the pattern is appeared in other way - moved the mark and got a working
account - and everything is OK! Now let`s imagine that you have opened
the deal, and in this case the pattern is appeared in other way - damn!
The spirit - is low, do not want to trade - you are giving up and
waiting till the situation become clear - and you don`t wanna get in the
trap once again and you safely swear loosing a good trade. In order to
avoid such kind situations you should made the clear rules of traded and
untraded patterns of appointed period - in future it will protect your
mind from
overloading and YOU will not skip good trades recently because of your
mistakes, you will avoid it.

*Elliot wave analyze- the program for analysing market by the method of
counting Elliot`s waves.


First of all I`d like to write my opinion about the Bill William`s
books. The traders who are trading not the first year this name calls
allergy. The strategy by itself is a very simple, but it includes a
solid add-on from psychology and it is impregnate with the influence of
eastern religions, such as Buddhism and etc. These topics are related
with the most deeper sides of human`s life. So, we have a peculiar
interweaving. That`s why there is such "euphoria" in the face of BW`s
methods and himself. After reading the book the thoughts are coming to
me that it`s a great man and the meeting with him would be like the
meeting with Buddha LOL. I want to reread his works more and more... So,
the war between his fans, it`s a war of ideologies, and frequently not a
tradings.

Now I`d say that his books can bring some use, but only for the people
with experience. Who are understanding, that a deal is not a "game" ,
but the investment. Who is searching not for the millions at the super
liquid market, and trying to get real percents according to their drawn
skills.


So, the "Beginner" level.

"At this moment lots of freshmen traders are giving up trading" It`s the
most scary thing, because frankly speaking it`s not a "moment", but a
very long period and very sticky. 1-3-5 years - without ceremony. When
even it seems that you have caught the higher ledge( the level of
trading) and you are trying to get it up, and suddenly some sticker is
shooting, sticking to you and pull you down, and once again you fall
down... But you understand that have caught the ledge while jumping and
it means that will be a new jump and you will be able to pick up.

I did not copy the text from the White`s blogg without purpose. I would
never write better by myself. In the monologue with oneself, like the
author is talking to himself: " the mood is jumping - it was good, but
the deer has put me in depression... I should follow the rules... I
should follow the rules..."
It`s panacea...


But, in realness it`s not a panacea. It`s the running on the circle at
the "Beginner" level. And in general the "Beginner" level is not the
level where money is not loosing. It`s loosing, and it`s really so. But,
If the freshman could definite for himself that futures or a slot, where
he will work and stroke up an acquaintance with more experienced people,
trying to work with objective and rational approach - appearing a chance
to have profit/losses approximately on the same level ( also with having
the skills, which are describing net). But it`s a rare thing - people so
much want to try everything...
Especially to earn money on the popular ticker. Euro, pound, oil and do
not listen to anyone. What I like now is that I can get lots of
interesting from any trader, because every person can teach something
good.. However people have lots of individual and getting it from their
inspiration. To meet and get -
good thing! Summing up to this paragraph - lullaby that only strict
rules, will not save a freshman, need to research your psychology. Your
reactions. About it, later.

Psychological Pressure.


We feel different emotions. The greediness, fear, euphoria, impatience,
stress, depression. We can imagine it, in a form of the
diagram(conditionally).
Every person has own zero tolerance level, and under this level he feels BAD,
and above this level he feels GOOD. And there is a model of condition,
which appears usually when we lay on the beach at the sea (or something
like that) - the most ideal thing! There are the list of usual
conditions, in which we are time after time, and also there are
stressing conditions. In which condition are we entering the trading?
"Quotations" of our feelings, the self-appraisals should not be below
zero. The trading can create such kind of conditions, because the losses
in the trading are inescapable. Will appear the fear to loose, the
desire not to let a profit to grow, the feeling of uncertainty. Very often the
purpose of the market is to intimidate a trader, that he loosed his
faith and would not believe in a simple thing which will come true. If
the self-appraisal of yourself like a trader is below zero, we are
risking so much to not see where to competently enter in the
movement. Only then we will understand and laugh. And the most important
is that we act not right, when we start to trade in this condition. The
result - looking for the harmony, the right methods of trading and the
system of values, which are helping us in:

1. Buying a serious attitude to the trading, when just the game become a
serious investment with calculation of the best trading proportion.
2. Buying the condition of the silent happiness while trading, when we
don`t feel "roller coaster, when we see, what the market is doing. We have to
say, that over risk due to the Marge can arouse appropriated suspicios, so
you do not have to always change your mind, but it would be more useful to
find better methods.
Anyway, it`s hard to change yourself and the strategy in the harmony
with our attitude to that, how much to loose and how much get in the
deal.

The difference between the soy and currency pairs.

. The soy is trading mainly in the short period of time starting from the opening
of CBOT exchange. From 18:30 MSK till 22:15. The e-auctions (from the
night till 18:30) powerful movements are seldom. The exchangers also have the
influence on the currencies rally, there are a few of them, they all
are very important in their own way - as the matter of fact the
currencies are trading 24h a day, that`s why we have lots of questions -
how many hours work per day, what if I`ll be sitting only in the USA, and
the movement will appear in the euro session. And if to work in the
Europe there will be a question how to be with those news, which are
publishing only for the USA? So, the most widespread decision is to stay
at the monitor from 09:30 till 19:30 by MSK. As the result we sit on the
soy only 3-3.5 hours. We sit 10 hours on the currencies and we are
afraid that the movement can happen in that time when we will go for a
hour to eat.


. Forex for a long time is making a demolition of the stops, and
destroying some technical figures or pictures with the punk`s haircut on
the any background. Even those who are trading, for example, of the
accumulations` levels, are trying to do it when there are no important
news on the market. The technique (the trend`s lines, patterns, MACD signals) is breaking frequently, one session can create
the movement to the one side, and the other session to the other side,
and earlier those who were trading by the scalping method of the
Paramon, were using a current situation and it doesn`t matter where the
market will go, the main thing is to fired up, but then this side of the
question became worse. In general the market is sharp and rash, but also
has a time to make some problems at many levels. The soy unlike the
currencies, in it`s one and only trading session should chose where to
go (even in the worst situation it will be possible to play in a safe
deal), the instrument is a little bit slow, TA levels are working much
better. Sealing on them, buzzing and moving hard breathy indeed. The
sharp moves on the opening exchange and in the very end could be a long
candle. Sometimes after the disruption of the level the soy is freezing.
At the exchange everybody gets the tickets to the cinema on the first
night and the traders leave a stage, and the quotations even do not move
for a step. Fortunately, such luck is not alsways, so
we have only one way to trade. The feeling of trading are so good, that
you do not feel tired!


. The indicators of the technical analysis much better work on the soy
than on the forex, because in my opinion it`s more primitive. It`s easy to
forecast your 5-10 % to the depot a day. But..the banal trend can smash
any daily, weekly sized levels. Anyway checking the sizes of the core.
Do not criticize, and looking for the better points to enter.

. Then we can see the pictures of that how it's easy after a few minutes
opening on the trend 1m-1m ( if 15 and 30m are also in the same side
it`s much better) of the level. I think there will be not a lot of
troubles on the forex according to such entrances. That`s why now I`m
trading with things that is simply and shorter by time. But sometimes I want to buy that
euro and oil, but what can i do...

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Sunday, August 10, 2008

Let`s philosophize/ The stops cleaner came to work.

The Euro is down! Thanks, God!:) Let`s go down and stay at it`s legal 1.2 -
1.3!! How many people are staying in the longs and proceed to averaging
over? I was also frequently making a sin - I have never had something
good from it. Probably, it`s human nature, at the some moment I`ve put
on that, what is on the big Marge, but couldn`t close the position,
which is going against with created moment, keep averaging over. But, the
Stops Cleaner has already went to the road of war and there will lots of
pain for those who are thinking that everything will be alright - their
scalp will be peeling out!
I wish I would be such unprejudiced robot while the trading, I would earn on
the profit units and on the other things. All these
tryings to find out where the recoil is brings a harm, and where is the market`s
opening. Only a small stop can save from foolishness.
Recently I was viewing the situation with the soy in the turning point
of the market in the day. There were no large sizes and opposed located
sizes, and looks like there was no a good trading, there were no the
levels of the past days - weeks during of the whole contract. I just
don't know what to do, so I was not trading. Very often the thoughts
are coming to me that I cant hold the market in the very beginning. How
are thinking, those who are starting to turn the market in the reverse
direction? What do they know about it? Their actions are very easy come to
through the filter of minute`s trend! Only one thing that is not in the power
of the firsts, is that the price after some minutes are returning to the
recoil`s level, giving a chance to get into the train. For that time,
while I`m using the sizes concrete to the soy, the purely technical
entrances are finding not often. But I should keep in my head lots
of details. It`s disadvantage.
As I have understood, there is no a general theory about which level, combo
diagram to chose in this or that moment. Everyone decides for himself.
The tastes are differ. Every trader makes over for himself. Where is better place to buy/sell? I didn`t like how the system of intricate enter works on the soy with the short stop. I`m not always put the stop at once, but always think about it.
For those who are interested in the soy, but got no chance to work with
the sizes - could take a try to chase the levels and entering because of
the reason of the one movement on the M1 and M5, but it would be better
that M15-M30 will be in the same direction.
The levels: ttwo lines ( above and below the price of
day`s opening). 400 points. Let`s say that 1200 is opened. So we are
getting two lines:1196 and 1204.
We can also say, that it`s 4 points. This is core. If before the opening
of CBOT`s auctions (18:30 MSK) the price will be on it, it means that it
will be the rejection to the level. If during the e-auctions the price
has hit the core and on the opening of CBOT staying on the take
profit, you should look what will going on at the minute`s - five
minute`s trends, etc, the turning back to the core is possible! Or we
will go to the second take.
short; 1-st take , the profit will be at the level 1179 and 2-d at 1151
long: 1-st take will be at 1221, 2-d at 1248
( 1700 points (17) and 4400 (44))
It`s funny but the levels are coinciding with the sizes. But with a
small deviation.

The schedule, when it`s possible to trade with the soy(MSK)
03:00-15:00
18:30-22:15
If the stop is loss/take profit is breaking by the gap, it`s working by
the first price of the terminal, but not proposed by trader.
--------------------
I`ll repeat myself.
If the price of CBOT there will be a break in the core to the side of
takes.
If the price of CBOT will be on the target, we search the chance to come
back to the core, cross it and get to the other first target. Or
movement to the second target. You should look at the minute`s trend.
It`s stupid thing not to take into consideration the moment!
The indicator, which I use to determine different trends in the one
window is MTF Has Bar lower A. It should be free at the sources. It was
written by Shteinitz, very famous person in everything, what is related with
advisers. As I remember, being selling the adviser for $100.

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